Research Article Open Access Double-Blind Peer Review

MODELING THE IMPACT OF THE 2016 NIGERIAN ECONOMIC RECESSION ON THE BULGARIAN LEV/NIGERIAN NAIRA EXCHANGE RATE

James Chidiebere Okafor
Published 26 February 2025
Vol. 12, No. 4 (2024)
pp. 19-32
CC BY 4.0
  1. 1
    James Chidiebere Okafor
    Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Rivers State University, Nkpolu Oroworoko, Rivers State, Nigeria
    NG

This research work examined the exchange rate of a comparative value of the Nigeria Naira with respect to Bulgaria lev and Turkish Lira to the two economic recessions of 2016 from 1 January to 31 December 2016 utilizing Box and Tiao's intervention analysis approach (1975). The Eview 10 package was used to evaluate the data. Time plot of daily exchange rate of Bulgaria Lev/Nigeria Naira shows horizontal trend then a vertical abrupt increase at 21 June 2016which prompted an intervention modeling. The pre-intervention dataset also indicated an upward movement showing that the series is not stationary. At a significance level of less than 5%, the pre-intervention series was shown to be stationary by the Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test. Plotting the stationarized data's correlogram revealed that ARIMA (15,1,15) was suggestive. The accompanying observations and the intervention forecasts are in close agreement. The intervention impact is therefore noteworthy.

JournalInternational Journal of Data Science and Statistics
ISSN3065-0577
Volume / IssueVol. 12, No. 4 (2024)
Pages19-32
Published26 February 2025
DOI10.5281/zenodo.14930751
Access Open Access
LicenseCC BY 4.0 — reuse with attribution
PublisherKeith Publications
Okafor, J. (2025). MODELING THE IMPACT OF THE 2016 NIGERIAN ECONOMIC RECESSION ON THE BULGARIAN LEV/NIGERIAN NAIRA EXCHANGE RATE. International Journal of Data Science and Statistics, Vol. 12 No. 4, pp. 19-32. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14930751

 Submit Your Research to International Journal of Data Science and Statistics

We invite original research articles, review papers, and case studies. Benefit from rigorous double-blind peer review, rapid decision within 4–8 weeks, DOI for every article, and worldwide open-access distribution.