MODELING THE IMPACT OF THE 2016 NIGERIAN ECONOMIC RECESSION ON THE BULGARIAN LEV/NIGERIAN NAIRA EXCHANGE RATE
This research work examined the exchange rate of a comparative value of the Nigeria Naira with respect to Bulgaria lev and Turkish Lira to the two economic recessions of 2016 from 1 January to 31 December 2016 utilizing Box and Tiao's intervention analysis approach (1975). The Eview 10 package was used to evaluate the data. Time plot of daily exchange rate of Bulgaria Lev/Nigeria Naira shows horizontal trend then a vertical abrupt increase at 21 June 2016which prompted an intervention modeling. The pre-intervention dataset also indicated an upward movement showing that the series is not stationary. At a significance level of less than 5%, the pre-intervention series was shown to be stationary by the Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test. Plotting the stationarized data's correlogram revealed that ARIMA (15,1,15) was suggestive. The accompanying observations and the intervention forecasts are in close agreement. The intervention impact is therefore noteworthy.
| Journal | International Journal of Data Science and Statistics |
| ISSN | 3065-0577 |
| Volume / Issue | Vol. 12, No. 4 (2024) |
| Pages | 19-32 |
| Published | 26 February 2025 |
| DOI | 10.5281/zenodo.14930751 |
| Access | Open Access |
| License | CC BY 4.0 — reuse with attribution |
| Publisher | Keith Publications |
Submit Your Research to International Journal of Data Science and Statistics
We invite original research articles, review papers, and case studies. Benefit from rigorous double-blind peer review, rapid decision within 4–8 weeks, DOI for every article, and worldwide open-access distribution.