TIME SERIES FORECASTING OF NIGERIA’S GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) FROM 1960 TO 2015
Abstract
<p>Economic growth in Nigeria has been under serious dimensional attacks especially since the commencement of the present government. The GDP as the proxy for economic growth surrendered to recession since the second quarter of 2016. Economic recession is synonymous with what most commentators and analysts use, as a practical definition of recession, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s real (inflation adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP)—the value of all goods and services a country produces. It is considered as a period of falling demand, production, and economic activities which cause panic and great concern in financial markets generally. The quest for knowing what is next was the objective of this paper. The GDP in US Dollars was subjected to static forecasting models using 1960 – 2015 as the sample frame with a decade forecast of 2016 – 2025. Findings revealed that the GDP, which was at a peak of $568.51Billions in 2014 toed a downward trend of $481.07Billions in 2015, picked from the downward trend increasing marginally to a forcast value of $483.53Billions in 2016 and $508.78Billions in 2017 to $533.33Billions in 2018 and GDP of $564.78Billions in 2019; but could not reach the 2014 peak (maxima), the peak to-trough (2014) output of $568.51Billions, until the 1st quarter of 2020. One of the recommendations was that the Federal Government should be economically diplomatic in handling the menace of militancy in the Niger Delta if it will be difficult to balance the economy without oil. This will go a long way in revamping the economy provided the level of destruction is still within economic repairable possibilities</p>